Which business will fall first Microsoft, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, or first?

I would pick Facebook, if I need to decide.

I would pick Facebook, if I need to decide.

These are great companies I own in stock.

That said:

  • Zuck’s latest moves contain -

    • Keeping control of Facebook even after he contributed nearly all his Facebook stock. Facebook stockholder suit alleges secret texts
    • I bet most shareholders needed him to attend. Just what a Trump Tweet does to a Business 's share price
    • Making his 2017 resolution “ met and to have seen folks in every state in america by the finish of the year… and talk to more folks about how exactly they're living, working and thinking regarding the future.”
    • Zuck said that religion is very important and he is not an atheist. (hat tip Hunter Johnson) Mark Zuckerberg says he’s no longer an atheist, considers ‘religion is very important’
    • All of the moves are consistent with someone setting the groundwork for a potential run for political office someday than with someone singularly focused on growing the Facebook empire. What would Steve Jobs do?
    • Individuals have speculated before about Zuck’s aspirations to run for President. Does Mark Zuckerberg Desire To Run For President?
    • Zuck’s actions are an investment risk. In the margin Zuck’s latest moves drive some investors to sell Facebook stock (increasing its cost of capital) and potentially providing more affordable capital to the Facebook’s competitors (if investors sell Facebook and get Snap, for example).
    • Even if Facebook “collapses, value-wise, has he not carried out one of the finest generational wealth transfers ever, free communication for the world and payouts to employees that are youthful, in the expense of challengers, advertisers and shareholders. In every one of these ways, he is nicely hedged for a graceful way out post failure.” (hat tip Shane Burns).

  • Facebook’s metrics are incorrect, though others (Google?) may have the exact same dilemma. It is not merely Facebook: Digital advertisers say web metrics in many cases are incorrect; Facebook Says It Found More Miscalculated Metrics
  • Technology writer Robert Scoble says spatial computing will dominate. Spatial computing means you see virtual items put on items in the real world and can physically walk around in actuality. Scobleizer - Entrepreneur in Residence
  • Scoble said he would inquire Zuck this how are you currently likely to compete using a “mixed reality” launch of the iPhone that’s coming in 11 months?
  • Scoble adds: I’d get the entire Oculus team to pivot, “If I were at Facebook. Toward mixed reality glasses. Why? Microsoft’s execs already told me they are wagering 100% on mixed reality (with its Microsoft HoloLens merchandise). The strategy at Microsoft is “Cloud Hololens.”” Apple Strategy 2017. Really important change to iPhone coming.

  • Oculus headset sales aren't excellent. VR headset sales by device 2016 | Statista
  • Facebook’s lack of a unique hardware is a hazard.

    • While Instagram is doing a fantastic job replicating Snap’s popular features and avoiding the unpopular ones (quick follower), Instagram doesn't have anything like Spectacles yet. The Best of Instagram Move in 2016? Replicating Snapchat -- The Motley Fool Snapchat vs. Instagram: Who's Copying Whom Most?
    • Google, Amazon and Apple can combine hardware and applications to provide you with a better, more seamless experience via the Apple and Google equivalents or Echo/Alexa. There’s no signs it truly is making its hardware although Facebook may be working on software for your smartphone.
    • Naturally there are bull cases for Facebook. Remember, I own the stock. Here’s one: “You no more use your laptop/iPhone/iPad to login to facebook, you have a subsidized Occulus VR which takes one to a chosen theme room at which it's possible to chat with your pals, view a video, share 3D snapshots, take part in a conversation. Companies set ‘ and VR enabled advertisements for the senses to capture holding/feeling’ them opens another VR experience for you personally. All of the facebook controlled programs(whatsapp, instagram….more?) Are completely integrated and seamlessly could be obtained from within the VR.” (hat tip Sunetro Banerjee)

Some others cited Microsoft or Apple as the most likely to fail. I disagree.

Apple has excellent lock-in. Individuals who adore the iPhone tend to buy iPads, Watch or MacBooks - and stay in the ecosystem as a result of programs they downloaded/paid for, contacts, photographs, calendar, etc.

As for Microsoft, I believe popular tech writers on Quora keep underestimating how lasting Excel, the remainder of Microsoft Office, etc. is. I’m not certain they realize how wedded to the status quo they are and how enterprises and governments really work.

These rewarding customers need an integral product and service and security, reliability that works. The switching costs are substantial.

Yes Microsoft lost the cheapest, most cost-aware applications users to Google Docs, etc.

Microsoft’s lock on enterprise software in areas like productivity although that’s not fantastic, stays strong among things with huge IT budgets.

And Microsoft look super enormous successes that are focused on making cloud services and HoloLens.

Satya Nadella looks like a terrific CEO. He acquired a move that was great placing Jeff Weiner, the brilliant CEO of LinkedIn . That never occurs. The acquirer constantly places one of their people accountable for integrating the target company into the acquirer’s ecosystem.

Satya is my favourite non-founder CEO. Zuck was my favorite founder CEO with Bezos. But I’m not convinced Facebook is Zuck’s favorite. That’s the crucial reason I think Facebook is the most likely to fail. Sheryl Sandberg would make a CEO that is great but it’s simply not the same - and not all of that would be her fault.